IvyArcIvyArc
25

Kingstonian

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#20

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Chester Plate runner-up who improved when 2 lengths fourth in valuable Galway handicap in July. Returns to Flat in first-time visor following promising third on hurdling debut last month. Potentially well treated and still far from exposed as a stayer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m1f130y Yie 1342/04C8C8 @ Cork 19/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f100y Sft 131C8 @ Curragh 20/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m4f Yie 13420/07C8C8 @ Tramore 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 1m4f Goo 134 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 79 parBHA85 @ Listowel 23/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m6f55y Hvy 135 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 85 par23/0985OR 852 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 86 · 2m2f140y Goo 135 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 86 parBHA89 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 24 · OR 89 · 1m6f Gd 139 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 89 par24/0589OR 89BHA89 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 89 · 1m4f Yie 129 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16322/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA894th4th0
2026-05-24CurraghBHA899th9th0
2026-05-08Chester22nd2nd0
2025-09-23ListowelBHA853rd3rd0
2025-08-16Tramore?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0416/0824/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish30th of 339% of fieldRange 24-33 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 30th of 33.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20252nd10/382%90%+0.08
19/04/202510th4/179%47%-0.32
20/07/20254th28/10%63%+0.63
16/08/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
23/09/20253rd11/271%60%-0.11
08/05/20262nd6/492%94%+0.02
24/05/20269th10/382%65%-0.17
31/07/20264th9/276%82%+0.06
22/08/20263rd15/890%87%-0.03