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Leinster

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 105

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Borderline smart performer who hit the frame in the Ascot Stakes/Chester Cup last season. Finished third in an Irish St Leger Trial prior to running as well as could be expected when well-held fifth in the main event here (1¾m, 100/1) last time. Could well make more impact back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chester 09/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 91 · 2m2f140y GF 122 · beat its mark09/05/2025 · OR 91 par9/052OR 912 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 93 · 2m3f210y Goo 130 · beat its mark17/06/2025 · OR 93 par1 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 93 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 93 par16/081OR 931 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 106 · 1m6f Goo 136 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 106 par1 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 1m6f Goo 134 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 105 par25/041OR 1051 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 105 · 1m6f Gd 134 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 105 · 1m4f70y Sft 138 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 105 par19/061OR 1051 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 105 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 104 · 1m6f Goo 136 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 104 par13/091OR 104projClass-projected finish: 23rd of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh15th5th0
2026-08-22Curragh13rd3rd0
2026-06-19Limerick15th5th0
2026-05-15Leopardstown14th4th0
2026-04-25Navan14th4th0
2025-09-14Curragh19th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0514/0919/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 3369% of fieldRange 17-33 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 33. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20254th10/382%79%-0.04
17/06/20254th25/10%84%+0.84
16/08/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
14/09/20259th22/10%0%0.00
25/04/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
15/05/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
19/06/20265th3/184%56%-0.29
22/08/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
13/09/20265th100/10%33%+0.33