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Madbadanddangerous

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 96

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#18

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

This race mooted as a target following a second success of the year at Galway in July. Finished 6 lengths off Highwayman prior to finishing well beaten at Leopardstown (13f, 25/1) last time. At least worth noting for each-way support on first crack over 2m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f110y Yie 12731/08C8C8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 127C0 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f Yie 12712/10C?BHA81 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m2f Yie 129 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 81 parBHA84 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m2f40y Yie 135 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 84 par16/0584OR 84BHA83 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 1m4f207y Sft 121 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 83 parBHA89 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 89 · 1m4f84y Yie 140 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 89 par27/0789OR 891 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m6f Goo 133 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 96 parBHA94 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR 94 · 1m5f Gd 123 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 94 par12/0994OR 94projClass-projected finish: 28th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA9420th20th0
2026-08-20Leopardstown16th6th0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA891st1st0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA831st1st0
2026-05-16NavanBHA847th7th0
2026-04-12LeopardstownBHA812nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0812/0427/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish28th of 3316% of fieldRange 13-33 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 28th of 33. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20252nd16/116%92%+0.76
18/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
12/10/20253rd18/581%80%-0.01
12/04/20262nd15/890%86%-0.04
16/05/20267th3/184%0%-0.84
20/06/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
27/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
20/08/20266th9/153%38%-0.15
12/09/202620th25/10%5%+0.05