33
Michonne
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 86
Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y
#28
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#28
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA86 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish29th of 3313% of fieldRange 14-33 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 29th of 33.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 25/04/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 02/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/09/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |