29
Shoda
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 88
Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y
#15
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Leopardstown | BHA115 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Clonmel | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 3331% of fieldRange 32-33 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 23rd of 33. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 94% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 89% | -0.06 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 01/02/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 53% | -0.18 |
| 03/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.21 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |