23
Sirius
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 90
Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y
#19
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA91 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA91 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | BHA91 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2024-08-02 | Galway | BHA82 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-07-29 | Galway | BHA82 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-06-28 | Curragh | BHA83 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 3375% of fieldRange 1-29 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 33. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2022 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/08/2022 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/09/2022 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/06/2024 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2024 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/08/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 28/09/2025 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/07/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.42 |