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3

Tennessee Stud

4yo Colt · 10-0 · OR 107

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart Group 2 winner over 15f in France last year. Again flying too high when well beaten in first-time cheekpieces in Irish St Leger here latest. Hard to rule out a revival on return to calmer waters, especially if the forecast rain arrives.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Saint-Cloud 27/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 105 · 1m1f207y Hvy 125 · beat its mark27/10/2024 · OR 105 par27/10C?OR 1051 @ Leopardstown 11/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 110 · 1m2f Goo 131 · beat its mark11/05/2025 · OR 110 par1 @ Epsom Downs 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 109 · 1m4f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 109 par7/061OR 1091 @ Curragh 29/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 112 · 1m4f Gd 128 · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 112 parC0 @ ParisLongchamp 07/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 112 · 1m3f204y Sft 128 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 112 par7/09C?OR 112C0 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 112 · 1m6f200y GS 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 112 par1 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 112 · 2m Goo 136 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 112 par29/051OR 1121 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 109 · 1m6f4y GF 137 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 107 · 1m6f Goo 136 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 107 par13/091OR 107projClass-projected finish: 33rd of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh17th7th0
2026-07-19Curragh16th6th0
2026-05-29Down Royal13rd3rd0
2025-10-04ParisLongchamp?1st1st0
2025-09-07ParisLongchamp?4th4th0
2025-06-29Curragh14th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1029/0629/0513/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 3341% of fieldRange 25-33 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 20th of 33. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20241st4/696%100%+0.04
11/05/20253rd7/163%50%-0.13
07/06/20253rd28/10%88%+0.88
29/06/20254th6/168%67%-0.02
07/09/20254th8/158%57%-0.01
04/10/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
29/05/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37
19/07/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
13/09/20267th40/10%0%0.00