13
Tim Toe
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 94
Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA91 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bellewstown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 3397% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 33.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/7 | 99% | 93% | -0.05 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.32 |