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Truth Be Told

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#29

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#29

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 4-y-o handicapper who's improved for current connections this year. Caught further back than ideal when beaten 2 lengths in a very valuable handicap at Leopardstown (13f). Has stamina on his dam's side and interesting if improving for the longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 08/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 81 · 1m Std 131 · below its mark08/11/2024 · OR 81 par8/11C8OR 81C8 @ Dundalk 28/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m2f150y Std 134 · below its mark28/03/2025 · OR 81 parBHA78 @ Gowran Park 15/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 1m1f100y Sft 138 · below its mark15/06/2025 · OR 78 par15/0678OR 78BHA75 @ Curragh 27/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 75 · 1m Goo 125 · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 75 parC7 @ Gowran Park 13/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark13/08/2025 · OR 75 par13/08C7OR 75BHA73 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 1m4f132y Goo 129 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 73 parBHA80 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 1m2f Gd 134 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 80 par10/0580OR 80BHA87 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 87 · 1m4f179y Goo 140 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 87 parBHA90 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 90 · 1m5f Gd 127 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 90 par12/0990OR 90projClass-projected finish: 4th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA906th6th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA872nd2nd0
2026-05-10LeopardstownBHA801st1st0
2025-10-09ThurlesBHA731st1st0
2025-08-13Gowran Park?4th4th0
2025-06-27CurraghBHA759th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1127/0610/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 3344% of fieldRange 5-25 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 33. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20243rd10/382%82%-0.01
28/03/20256th11/271%38%-0.34
15/06/20255th7/163%20%-0.43
27/06/20259th12/137%58%+0.21
13/08/20254th13/266%75%+0.09
09/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
10/05/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
20/07/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
12/09/20266th10/147%75%+0.28