IvyArcIvyArc
7

Uxmal

7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 102

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't stood much racing since his victory in 2024 Queen Alexandra at Ascot. Didn't build on the promise of his comeback run at Galway (1¾m) last time. Will likely need to be back to his very best to defy his mark in a race this competitive, for all he'll relish the greater stamina test here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 06/09/2023 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 80 · 1m5f180y Gd 135 · below its mark06/09/2023 · OR 80 par6/09C8OR 80C8 @ Tramore 13/09/2023 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 2m Gd 145 · beat its mark13/09/2023 · OR 79 parC1 @ Saint-Cloud 29/09/2023 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m5f202y Ver 125 · beat its mark29/09/2023 · OR 81 par29/09C1OR 81BHA106 @ Killarney 14/05/2024 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 106 · 1m6f44y Sft 138 · beat its mark14/05/2024 · OR 106 par2 @ Royal Ascot 22/06/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 106 · 2m5f143y GF 130 · beat its mark22/06/2024 · OR 106 par22/062OR 1061 @ Curragh 19/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 108 · 1m6f16y Goo 137 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 108 par1 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 108 · 2m71y Hvy 135 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 108 par2/111OR 1081 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 105 · 1m4f70y Sft 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 105 parBHA105 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 105 · 1m6f14y Yie 131 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 105 par31/07105OR 105projClass-projected finish: 22nd of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31GalwayBHA1054th4th0
2026-06-19Limerick13rd3rd0
2025-11-02Curragh15th5th0
2025-07-19Curragh17th7th0
2024-06-22Royal Ascot21st1st0
2024-05-14KillarneyBHA1061st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0914/052/1131/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 3366% of fieldRange 26-33 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 33. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20232nd3/184%91%+0.07
13/09/20231st2/189%100%+0.11
29/09/20232nd6/168%86%+0.17
14/05/20241st11/893%100%+0.07
22/06/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
19/07/20257th20/10%0%0.00
02/11/20255th4/179%56%-0.23
19/06/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
31/07/20264th6/492%40%-0.52