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10

Valiancy

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 97

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#17

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole British raider. Completed a double in stylish fashion on return at Hamilton (13f). Better than he could show when sixth in Copper Horse at Royal Ascot (1¾m) and again asked to come from a long way back when a non-stayer at Goodwood (2½m). Has potential but softer ground would be an unknown.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 16/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 13316/0544 @ Haydock 30/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m3f175y Goo 1255 @ Hamilton 11/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m3f15y Gd 12811/0652 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 1m6f1y Goo 121 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Sandown 30/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m6f Goo 136 · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 81 par30/074OR 812 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 1m6f1y Gd 117 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 90 · 1m5f16y Gd 135 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 90 par17/053OR 902 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 98 · 1m6f34y GF 136 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 97 · 2m4f137y Goo 132 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 97 par31/072OR 97projClass-projected finish: 15th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Goodwood29th9th0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot26th6th0
2026-05-17Hamilton31st1st0
2025-09-06Haydock21st1st0
2025-07-30Sandown42nd2nd0
2025-07-05Haydock23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/055/0717/0531/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 3347% of fieldRange 19-32 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 18th of 33. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20257th14/126%33%+0.07
30/05/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
11/06/20251st1/799%100%+0.01
05/07/20253rd9/488%78%-0.10
30/07/20252nd5/696%80%-0.16
06/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
17/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
16/06/20266th9/488%67%-0.21
31/07/20269th3/184%43%-0.41