8
Exchange Student
2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 66
Curragh · Kwiff More Bang For Your Bet Nursery Handicap · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA55 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA56 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +20.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 28/06/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 15th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |