7

Matavai Bay

2yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 67

Curragh · Kwiff More Bang For Your Bet Nursery Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished in mid-field on last 2 of 3 starts in maidens, not given a hard time of things. May do better now handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 12825/07C8C8 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f Yie 1285/08C8C8 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 7f111y Gd 12818/08C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Roscommon?5th5th0
2026-08-05Sligo?6th6th0
2026-07-25Gowran Park?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/075/0818/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +31.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/202610th33/10%0%0.00
05/08/20266th66/10%50%+0.50
18/08/20265th125/10%64%+0.64