3
Romance
2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 76
Curragh · Kwiff More Bang For Your Bet Nursery Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Listowel | BHA76 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 31/07/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |