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4

Alfalfa

8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 66

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

58%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Matched his peak form when winning 15-runner handicap at this course (12f, soft) in October. Not in the same form over C&D 17 days later and off the track since, so he's entitled to need this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA70 @ Listowel 23/09/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 70 · 1m1f Goo 132 · below its mark23/09/2024 · OR 70 par23/0970OR 70BHA68 @ Naas 13/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 68 · 1m2f84y Yie 135 · beat its mark13/10/2024 · OR 68 parBHA69 @ Curragh 22/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 69 · 1m2f Yie 141 · beat its mark22/10/2024 · OR 69 par22/1069OR 69BHA69 @ Galway 28/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 69 · 1m3f180y Hvy 119 · below its mark28/10/2024 · OR 69 parBHA66 @ Gowran Park 02/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 66 · 1m4f40y Goo 126 · below its mark02/06/2025 · OR 66 par2/0666OR 66BHA64 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 64 · 2m144y Sft 164 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 22 · OR 63 · 1m2f Yie 163 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 63 par28/0963OR 63BHA63 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 63 · 1m4f Sft 150 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 63 parBHA69 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 21st of 25 · OR 69 · 1m2f Hvy 139 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 69 par21/1069OR 69projClass-projected finish: 8th of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-21CurraghBHA6921th21th0
2025-10-04CurraghBHA631st1st0
2025-09-28CurraghBHA634th4th0
2025-09-11ClonmelBHA645th5th0
2025-06-02Gowran ParkBHA665th5th0
2024-10-28GalwayBHA696th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0928/1028/0921/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2386% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 23. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20248th11/142%30%-0.12
13/10/20243rd14/126%80%+0.54
22/10/20246th7/282%74%-0.08
28/10/20246th13/266%67%+0.01
02/06/20255th18/15%43%+0.38
11/09/20255th18/15%64%+0.58
28/09/20254th25/10%86%+0.86
04/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
21/10/202521st12/137%17%-0.20