19
Belle Nuit
3yo Filly · 11-2 · OR 61
Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 2f
#16
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | BHA62 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA67 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Galway | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Galway | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2318% of fieldRange 4-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 23.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 02/11/2025 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 08/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 08/09/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |