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Chipsrdown

4yo Filly · 11-12 · OR 66

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has responded really well to the application of a visor, bagging her first win at Leopardstown in June and improving another chunk when driven clear to follow up at Gowran last week. Up 8 lb but she's thriving and this step up in trip may unlock more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 10/05/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 12910/05C8C8 @ Leopardstown 16/05/2025 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR - · 1m Goo 129C8 @ Tipperary 27/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f20y Yie 12927/05C8BHA58 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f Yie 140 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 58 · 1m31y Gd 140 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 58 par12/0558OR 58BHA56 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 56 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 56 parC9 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 55 · 1m Yie 137 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 55 par12/06C9OR 55BHA55 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 55 · 1m1f GF 137 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 55 parBHA58 @ Gowran Park 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 58 · 1m Yie 140 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 58 par19/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Gowran ParkBHA581st1st0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA551st1st0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA562nd2nd0
2026-05-12KillarneyBHA5811th11th0
2026-04-15LeopardstownBHA585th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0515/0412/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 23100% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength99%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 23. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/202510th80/10%25%+0.25
16/05/202515th250/10%13%+0.13
27/05/20253rd125/10%82%+0.82
15/04/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
12/05/202611th13/266%29%-0.37
20/05/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67
12/06/20263rd7/163%85%+0.21
18/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
19/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12