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9

Elusive Duke

4yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 62

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 2f

#12

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proving expensive to follow for current yard, runner-up 3 times this summer. Not at that level the last twice, albeit he was held up in a steadily-run race 3 weeks ago. Step back up in trip should help his cause.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 65 · 1m98y Yie 136 · beat its mark01/08/2025 · OR 65 par1/0865OR 65BHA66 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 66 · 1m2f110y Goo 128 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 66 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m1f Sft 122 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 62 par4/0662OR 62BHA61 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 61 · 1m1f100y Yie 131 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 61 parBHA62 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 62 · 1m2f194y Gd 132 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 62 par24/0662OR 62BHA62 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m30y Gd 132 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 62 · 1m1f135y Goo 133 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 62 par20/0762OR 62BHA65 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 65 · 1m123y Yie 135 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA63 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 63 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 63 par9/0963OR 63projClass-projected finish: 11th of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA6311th11th0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA6510th10th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA622nd2nd0
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA627th7th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA622nd2nd0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA612nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0812/0620/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 2314% of fieldRange 24-24 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 20th of 23. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20255th12/137%73%+0.36
24/08/20253rd7/282%87%+0.05
04/06/20267th12/137%57%+0.20
12/06/20262nd5/174%93%+0.19
24/06/20262nd9/276%93%+0.17
14/07/20267th2/189%54%-0.36
20/07/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
28/07/202610th6/168%44%-0.25
09/09/202611th6/168%41%-0.27