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20

If Not For Grace

4yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 56

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 2f

#23

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#23

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much more than previously when eighth in a big-field maiden at Navan 3 weeks ago, never nearer. Opening mark very fair on that evidence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 11.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f120y Yie 1471/06C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f163y Yie 13522/06C8C7 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 1m Goo 14212/08C7C8 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR - · 1m2f10y Gd 1405/09C8projClass-projected finish: 18th of 23
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Navan?8th8th0
2026-08-12Gowran Park?13th13th0
2026-06-22Ballinrobe?8th8th0
2026-06-01Gowran Park?15th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0622/0612/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2327% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +18.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 23. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/202615th100/10%0%0.00
22/06/20268th125/10%22%+0.22
12/08/202613th150/10%14%+0.14
05/09/20268th300/10%65%+0.65