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The Ginger Kid

2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 83

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Turbo Boost' Nursery · 7f 3y

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in a Nottingham novice (6f) on second start. Found things tough at Royal Ascot but has been running well in 7f nurseries since, shaping as if still in decent form when sixth of 18 at York's Ebor meeting. Respected back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0524 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 1333/0641 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR - · 6f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS16/0614 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 82 · 7f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 82 par10/074OR 822 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 82 par30/072OR 822 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 83 · 7f GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 83 par20/082OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York26th4th+2
2026-07-30Goodwood22nd0th+2
2026-07-10Chester42nd2nd0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot121th17th+4
2026-06-03Nottingham41st1st0
2026-05-14York214th12th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/053/0616/0610/0730/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/202614th7/282%7%-0.74
03/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
16/06/202621st22/10%0%0.00
10/07/20262nd9/488%67%-0.21
30/07/20262nd11/142%94%+0.52
20/08/20266th12/137%71%+0.34