2
Al Wathba
2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 89
Epsom Downs · Betfred Derby 'Wild Card' EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 113y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Doncaster | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/11 | 99% | 50% | -0.49 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |