Bincimbal

2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 81

Epsom Downs · Betfred Derby 'Wild Card' EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 113y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▲2

Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.8

Today: 2

Class gap: -1.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-27	Carlisle	4	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-08-14	Epsom Downs	5	1st	5th	−3	5.4
2026-07-11	Salisbury	3	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-05-28	Yarmouth	3	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/05/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
11/07/2026	4th	15/2	61%	40%	-0.21
14/08/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
27/08/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12