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Sword Salute

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 91

Epsom Downs · Betfred Derby 'Wild Card' EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 113y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Masar colt who built on debut promise with victory in 8-runner maiden at Lingfield (7f) in May. Caused a 33/1 shock when making all on nursery debut at Glorious Goodwood (7f, good to firm) in July but not good enough upped markedly in grade at Woodbine (1m) earlier in the month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 13318/0534 @ Lingfield 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 13030/0541 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 7f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS18/0612 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 85 par30/072OR 85C0 @ Woodbine 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 91 par12/09C?OR 91projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Woodbine?7th5th+2
2026-07-30Goodwood21st1st0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot113th12th+1
2026-05-30Lingfield41st3rd−2
2026-05-18Redcar33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0530/0518/0630/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20263rd11/893%67%-0.26
30/05/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
18/06/202613th66/10%8%+0.08
30/07/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
12/09/20267th12/137%14%-0.23