4
Blue Noon
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 74
Epsom Downs · Hunt Family Fund Novice Stakes (Sponsored By Betfred) (GBB Race) · 1m 2f 17y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 5 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |