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9

Damascus Steel

6yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 77

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice in the winter and also at Goodwood in June and over C&D in July. Has largely held his form since, running creditably when 3½ lengths sixth of 11 to Nibras Gold at Chester last time. Visor replaces cheekpiece, though has been successful whilst wearing both.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m4f51y Std 128 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 72 par30/014OR 725 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 73 · 1m4f Std 138 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 73 · 1m4f Std 131 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 73 par3/044OR 734 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m4f8y Goo 123 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 1m3f218y Goo 127 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 72 par19/064OR 724 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 1m4f6y Goo 146 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 75 par3 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m3f188y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/073OR 794 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 79 · 1m4f6y GS 157 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 78 · 1m4f63y Sft 157 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 78 par12/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester46th6th0
2026-08-31Epsom Downs45th5th0
2026-07-25York38th7th+1
2026-07-16Epsom Downs41st1st0
2026-06-19Goodwood41st1st0
2026-05-31Thirsk46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0131/0525/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73
28/02/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
03/04/20265th9/153%71%+0.19
31/05/20266th28/10%55%+0.55
19/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
16/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
25/07/20268th10/147%22%-0.25
31/08/20265th22/10%69%+0.69
12/09/20266th11/271%50%-0.21