8
Flash Man
4yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 78
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Fontwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Fontwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Plumpton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Ascot | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength2%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 14/11/2025 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 17/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 92% | -0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/5 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |