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5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 81

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice on the all-weather last year. Hasn't really kicked on in 2026 but has shown enough to prove he retains all his ability. Now back on his winning mark and likely to be suited by the step back up to 1½m, he's very much one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 24/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m2f Std 134 · beat its mark24/04/2025 · OR 76 par24/044OR 764 @ Lingfield 10/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m2f Goo 131 · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ Chelmsford City 01/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 1m2f Sta 130 · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 75 par1/074OR 753 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 81 · 1m1f104y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Lingfield 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 1m4f Std 138 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 81 par21/084OR 813 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 86 · 1m3f219y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 85 par29/064OR 854 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 1m1f201y Goo 133 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 83 · 1m2f1y Goo 140 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 83 par9/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar44th4th0
2026-08-12Salisbury43rd3rd0
2026-06-29Kempton47th7th0
2026-05-27Kempton36th5th+1
2025-08-21Lingfield41st1st0
2025-07-31Wolverhampton35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0431/0729/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength54%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20254th7/282%57%-0.24
10/05/20255th5/287%50%-0.37
01/07/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
31/07/20255th10/382%67%-0.16
21/08/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
27/05/20266th10/147%58%+0.11
29/06/20267th3/184%45%-0.39
12/08/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
09/09/20264th13/266%70%+0.04