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6

Hengest

4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 79

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#11

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a quick-fire hat-trick in 4-runner event at Yarmouth in May. Has largely struggled since, though, and has been well beaten on both his previous tries at this trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m113y Gd 14228/0445 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 69 · 1m2f Goo 155 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 1m3f133y Gd 139 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 69 par19/055OR 695 @ Yarmouth 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 73 · 1m2f23y Goo 140 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 73 par2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m4f6y Sft 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 82 par6/062OR 824 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 82 · 1m2f56y Goo 158 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 81 · 1m3f211y GF 143 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 81 par25/074OR 814 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 80 · 1m2f17y GS 142 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newmarket 19/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 80 · 1m1f Gd 156 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 80 par19/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newmarket47th7th0
2026-08-31Epsom Downs43rd3rd0
2026-07-25Ascot412th12th0
2026-06-27York49th9th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs28th6th+2
2026-05-28Yarmouth51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0428/0525/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20264th80/10%63%+0.63
11/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
19/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
28/05/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
06/06/20268th12/137%42%+0.05
27/06/20269th6/168%38%-0.30
25/07/202612th14/126%21%-0.05
31/08/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
19/09/20267th14/126%54%+0.28