Marnier
4yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 86
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +10.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |