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Nibras Gold

8yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 79

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Continues to get better with age, winning twice at Chester this year, posting a career best when landing 11-runner event there 15 days ago by 1¼ lengths from Arrange. Up another 3 lb but looks sure to be involved.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Market Rasen 19/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 115 · 2m125y Gd 146 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 115 par19/072OR 1155 @ Haydock 08/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m6f Gd 155 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Chester 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 74 · 1m4f63y GS 158 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 74 par13/094OR 742 @ Market Rasen 27/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 116 · 2m125y Gd 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 116 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 120 · 2m1f77y Gd 168 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 120 par23/054OR 1204 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 120 · 2m213y Goo 168 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 120 par5 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 1m4f63y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 75 par11/075OR 754 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 76 · 1m3f198y Goo 141 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 76 · 1m4f63y Sft 155 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 76 par12/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester41st1st0
2026-08-06Brighton42nd2nd0
2026-07-11Chester51st2nd−1
2026-06-16Stratford43rd3rd0
2026-05-23Bangor-on-Dee42nd2nd0
2025-09-27Market Rasen29th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0727/0911/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength84%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20253rd11/142%85%+0.43
08/08/20255th5/287%50%-0.37
13/09/20252nd8/158%89%+0.31
27/09/20259th6/168%27%-0.41
23/05/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
16/06/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
11/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
06/08/20262nd11/486%75%-0.11
12/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14