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4

Oneforthegutter

7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 82

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Commentary

Very useful staying handicapper at his best but no better than mid-division in 6 starts this season. Well handicapped on old form but hard to make a case for him unless the market were to suddenly speak in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 97 · 1m5f61y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 97 par20/092OR 972 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 95 · 1m3f197y Hvy 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 95 par2 @ Southwell 12/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 93 · 2m102y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 93 par12/122OR 932 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m4f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m5f26y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 90 par20/062OR 902 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m6f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m7f209y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 86 par8/082OR 862 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m3f218y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m5f61y GF 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 84 par19/092OR 84projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newbury27th5th+2
2026-08-29Goodwood25th3rd+2
2026-08-08Ascot27th5th+2
2026-07-10Newmarket28th6th+2
2026-06-20Ayr28th6th+2
2026-05-02Newmarket27th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/092/058/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength7%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202511th50/10%23%+0.23
08/11/202515th33/10%33%+0.33
12/12/20258th10/147%13%-0.35
02/05/20267th16/116%14%-0.02
20/06/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
10/07/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
08/08/20267th22/10%33%+0.33
29/08/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
19/09/20267th14/126%25%-0.01