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10

Seeking Charles

5yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 75

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Turned in his best effort to date when winning 14-runner C&D handicap last month by 6 lengths from Crooked Path. An 8 lb rise for that success demands more but he's lightly raced for his age and remains relatively unexposed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 18/09/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m1f209y Gd 130 · beat its mark18/09/2024 · OR 75 par18/094OR 755 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m3f219y Sta 139 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 68 · 1m4f Sft 154 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 68 par25/105OR 684 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 69 · 2m102y Std 127 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 69 par3 @ Newbury 17/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m69y Sft 162 · HIGHER CLASS17/0234 @ Kempton 23/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 2m Gd 1605 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 68 · 1m3f99y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 68 par15/065OR 685 @ Newmarket 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 67 · 1m4f GF 132 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 67 · 1m4f6y GS 145 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 67 par31/084OR 67projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Epsom Downs41st1st0
2026-08-06Newmarket52nd3rd−1
2026-06-15Windsor53rd4th−1
2026-03-23Kempton47th7th0
2026-02-17Newbury37th6th+1
2025-11-20Southwell410th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0920/1115/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20246th33/10%29%+0.29
10/10/202510th40/10%0%0.00
25/10/20253rd66/10%82%+0.82
20/11/202510th40/10%0%0.00
17/02/20267th80/10%40%+0.40
23/03/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
15/06/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
06/08/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
31/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63