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Tiger

4yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 84

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 6y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved when opening his account in this country in good style at Chester in August and not as well placed as the winner when just denied under a penalty at Ayr 6 days later. However, he was a bit too keen for his own good on heavy going when below form last time and needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m2f56y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 80 par10/102OR 803 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 77 · 1m2f Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 77 par2 @ Southwell 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 76 · 1m4f14y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 76 par28/112OR 764 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m75y Goo 125 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m3f218y GS 132 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 75 par5/064OR 755 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 1m3f197y Goo 140 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 1m2f70y Gd 138 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 75 par2/084OR 755 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 75 · 1m2f Goo 147 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 75 par3 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m1f207y Hvy 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 84 par30/083OR 84projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley38th7th+1
2026-08-08Ayr52nd3rd−1
2026-08-02Chester41st1st0
2026-06-14Doncaster52nd3rd−1
2026-06-05Goodwood44th4th0
2026-05-09Nottingham46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/109/052/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20256th40/10%29%+0.29
25/10/20253rd22/10%83%+0.83
28/11/20254th17/255%50%-0.05
09/05/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
05/06/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
14/06/20262nd11/893%80%-0.13
02/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
08/08/20262nd6/594%92%-0.02
30/08/20268th10/382%22%-0.60