IvyArcIvyArc
5

Carnival Day

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Bet Builder' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 17y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Goes well round here and landed a second C&D success earlier in the month having edged below last winning mark. Cheekpieces are now added and can give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 12/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m1f209y Sft 142 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 80 par12/094OR 803 @ Epsom Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m2f17y GS 127 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m53y Sft 136 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 79 par28/104OR 794 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m113y Gd 129 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 79 · 1m1f209y Gd 124 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 79 par12/063OR 794 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m4f6y Goo 149 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m1f201y Goo 127 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 77 par12/084OR 774 @ Sandown 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m1f209y Gd 137 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 1m2f17y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 74 par10/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs51st3rd−2
2026-08-28Sandown43rd4th−1
2026-08-12Salisbury45th6th−1
2026-07-16Epsom Downs44th5th−1
2026-06-12Sandown37th7th0
2026-04-28Epsom Downs43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0928/0412/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20256th6/168%55%-0.14
28/09/20252nd11/142%89%+0.47
28/10/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
28/04/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
12/06/20267th14/126%54%+0.28
16/07/20264th2/189%50%-0.39
12/08/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
28/08/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
10/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13