Cogitate
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 82
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Bet Builder' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 17y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |