IvyArcIvyArc
4

Echalar

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 78

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Bet Builder' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 17y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran out a ready winner from his easing mark at Doncaster in August, finally proving fully effective at this trip. Backed that up when ½-length second of 7 to Hamlet's Night at Yarmouth (1¼m, good) 12 days ago despite conceding first run. Could still have some mileage from this mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength33%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m Std 134 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 79 par12/034OR 792 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m13y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 76 par27/044OR 762 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m2f70y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 75 par27/065OR 755 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m2f70y Gd 137 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 74 par2/084OR 745 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 1m2f43y GF 130 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 1m2f23y Goo 131 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 76 par15/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth42nd3rd−1
2026-08-15Doncaster51st3rd−2
2026-08-02Chester47th8th−1
2026-07-16Chepstow54th6th−2
2026-06-27Chepstow53rd5th−2
2026-05-08Chester210th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/038/052/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
07/04/20266th40/10%58%+0.58
27/04/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
08/05/202610th80/10%10%+0.10
27/06/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
16/07/20264th6/168%40%-0.28
02/08/20267th28/10%25%+0.25
15/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
15/09/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10