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5

Bubbles Wonky

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 77

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' Handicap · 1m 113y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent sort who gained a deserved first win for his current yard in a Class 5 handicap at Sandown (1m). Form of his subsequent 3½-length third at Windsor has taken a few knocks. May fall short in a better race here, even if allowed the run of the race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 82 · 7f212y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 82 par17/103OR 824 @ Chelmsford City 15/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m2f Std 139 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 81 par2 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 79 · 1m2f Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 79 par27/022OR 794 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m Std 132 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 75 par4/055OR 755 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 74 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Sandown 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par24/074OR 745 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 77 · 1m31y Sft 133 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 77 par29/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor43rd3rd0
2026-08-06Sandown51st2nd−1
2026-07-24Sandown43rd3rd0
2026-05-20Kempton53rd4th−1
2026-05-04Kempton53rd4th−1
2026-03-12Chelmsford City44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1012/0324/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20259th12/137%20%-0.17
15/01/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
27/02/20269th66/10%20%+0.20
12/03/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
04/05/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
20/05/20263rd16/116%82%+0.66
24/07/20263rd33/10%60%+0.60
06/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
29/08/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13