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7

Likeness

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 75

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' Handicap · 1m 113y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden for George Boughey. Built on first run for current connections when fairly useful winner over C&D handicap latest. She did have a good pitch in a messy race on that occasion, though, and needs more again up in class/back against her elders.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 1289/0744 @ Newbury 15/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 1285 @ Wolverhampton 02/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Std 1282/0954 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 76 · 1m5y Std 130 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ Newcastle 06/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 76 · 1m5y Std 134 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 76 par6/114OR 764 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 76 · 7f Std 128 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 76 · 1m13y Std 123 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 76 par5/044OR 764 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 74 · 7f80y Gd 128 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 71 · 1m113y Goo 131 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 71 par10/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs51st2nd−1
2026-08-21Ffos Las42nd2nd0
2026-04-05Southwell45th5th0
2026-03-12Chelmsford City44th4th0
2025-11-06Newcastle42nd2nd0
2025-10-04Newcastle42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/074/105/0410/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20253rd2/189%78%-0.12
15/08/20253rd11/486%75%-0.11
02/09/20256th7/491%38%-0.53
04/10/20252nd10/147%75%+0.28
06/11/20252nd9/488%67%-0.21
12/03/20264th5/287%67%-0.20
05/04/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
21/08/20262nd4/179%50%-0.29
10/09/20261st25/10%100%+1.00