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3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 84
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' Handicap · 1m 113y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 43% | -0.53 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 22% | -0.63 |