8
Fresh Fade
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 70
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap · 7f 3y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Dundalk | BHA84 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/10/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 18th | 125/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |