Havana Smile
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 74
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap · 7f 3y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |