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Musical Angel

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 79

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap · 7f 3y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this race from 1 lb higher mark last year when with Andrew Balding and ran her best race since when second of 9 over C&D 17 days ago. Looks sure to go well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 12/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 77 · 6f17y Goo 128 · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 77 par12/074OR 774 @ Epsom Downs 15/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 76 · 6f3y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 76 par5 @ Chester 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 7f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 75 par12/095OR 754 @ Epsom Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 80 · 7f3y GS 137 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f Sta 134 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 83 par6/044OR 832 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 82 · 7f3y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 81 · 7f3y Goo 138 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 81 par1/074OR 814 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 80 · 7f3y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 79 · 7f3y Goo 140 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 79 par10/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs42nd2nd0
2026-07-16Epsom Downs43rd3rd0
2026-07-01Epsom Downs46th6th0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs28th6th+2
2026-04-06Kempton45th5th0
2025-09-28Epsom Downs41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0728/091/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20258th18/15%22%+0.17
15/08/20253rd11/142%50%+0.08
12/09/20252nd11/142%83%+0.41
28/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
06/04/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
05/06/20268th33/10%53%+0.53
01/07/20266th5/174%44%-0.29
16/07/20263rd11/271%50%-0.21
10/09/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40