9
Our Guy
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 67
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap · 7f 3y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-04 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +13.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/01/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |