4
Silver Trumpet
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 75
Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap · 7f 3y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brighton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |