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Wreck It Ryley

6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 75

Epsom Downs · Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap · 7f 3y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better known for 6f exploits, finishing a good third of 26 at Goodwood in July, but he's not proving so good at this trip and was last on soft going earlier this month. Visor replaces blinkers but looks best opposed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 82 par25/044OR 824 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 82 · 6f Gd 133 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 80 · 6f2y GS 130 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 80 par16/054OR 804 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 80 · 7f15y Gd 135 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 79 · 7f192y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 79 par27/063OR 794 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 26 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 75 par29/074OR 754 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 77 · 6f6y GS 137 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 76 · 6f212y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 76 par5/093OR 76projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock311th10th+1
2026-08-21Hamilton47th7th0
2026-07-29Goodwood43rd3rd0
2026-07-11York46th6th0
2026-06-27York39th8th+1
2026-06-06Musselburgh48th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/046/0629/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20264th2/189%50%-0.39
08/05/20268th9/153%13%-0.40
16/05/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77
06/06/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
27/06/20269th40/10%38%+0.38
11/07/20266th40/10%72%+0.72
29/07/20263rd28/10%92%+0.92
21/08/20267th4/179%40%-0.39
05/09/202611th33/10%0%0.00