IvyArcIvyArc
4

Macarone

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 52

Ffos Las · Alex And Salvo Welcome You To The Bridge Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a reduced mark to gain a first win for current yard in 6-runner classified event over C&D last month and followed up returned to a handicap in 8-runner event at Bath (5.7f, good to firm) just over 2 weeks ago, value for extra having met early trouble. Set to go well in hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f21y Std 133 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 58 par27/046OR 586 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 56 · 6f16y GS 131 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f16y Sft 129 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 54 par6/066OR 546 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 51 · 5f10y Goo 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 49 · 5f16y GF 129 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 49 par27/066OR 496 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 47 · 6f16y GF 125 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 47 par9/086OR 476 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 47 · 6f Gd 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 5f160y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 51 par12/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath61st1st0
2026-08-27Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-08-09Chepstow65th5th0
2026-07-28Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-06-27Chepstow65th5th0
2026-06-13Bath67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0413/069/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
21/05/202610th16/116%18%+0.02
06/06/20268th18/15%13%+0.07
13/06/20267th25/10%54%+0.54
27/06/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
28/07/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
09/08/20265th6/168%33%-0.35
27/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
12/09/20261st6/168%100%+0.32