Sub Thirteen
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 53
Ffos Las · Alex And Salvo Welcome You To The Bridge Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Bath | 2 | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 30% | -0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |