8
Defiant Dream
2yo Filly · 8-2 · OR 53
Ffos Las · Bridge, The Home Of The Carvery Nursery · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Southwell | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 17/09/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |