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3

Knock Three Times

2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 73

Ffos Las · Bridge, The Home Of The Carvery Nursery · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved to make a winning nursery debut at Lingfield (6f, good to firm) in July. Shaped as if back in form when 2¼-length fourth at Bath (5f) last time, when outpaced before running on. First-time cheekpieces/softer ground could help and looks the leading hope of Jamie Osborne pair.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0543 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS23/0532 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 73 par27/062OR 735 @ Lingfield 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 72 par15/075OR 725 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 135 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 75 par1/085OR 755 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 74 · 5f10y Goo 134 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 74 par12/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath54th4th0
2026-08-01Lingfield55th5th0
2026-07-15Lingfield51st1st0
2026-06-27Newcastle24th0th+3
2026-05-23Goodwood32nd0th+2
2026-05-09Nottingham42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0523/0527/0615/071/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -15.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20262nd22/10%83%+0.83
23/05/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
27/06/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
15/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/08/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
12/09/20264th6/168%67%-0.02