IvyArcIvyArc
5

Perigord Noir

2yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 71

Ffos Las · Bridge, The Home Of The Carvery Nursery · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went close on second start in a nursery at Chepstow (5f, soft) last month. Backed that up in change of headgear (still hung right) when 1½-length third in above-average nursery for this grade at Bath latest. Conditions hold no fears and should go well from a potentially handy draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0545 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y GF 13323/0554 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/0642 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 70 par31/072OR 705 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 5f16y Goo 129 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 68 par29/085OR 685 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 5f10y Goo 131 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 71 par12/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath53rd3rd0
2026-08-29Chepstow52nd2nd0
2026-07-31Goodwood214th10th+3
2026-06-12Sandown44th3rd+1
2026-05-23Windsor54th4th0
2026-05-04Kempton43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0523/0512/0631/0729/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -9.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75
23/05/20264th5/174%73%-0.01
12/06/20264th16/116%63%+0.47
31/07/202614th100/10%24%+0.24
29/08/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
12/09/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04